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Syria Alert: Turkish Ground Invasion ! 

New phase in the war

Turkish tanks roll into Syrian territory. Credits: Kazu

Multi-frontier war

Just when it looked like there have might be an opening for some dialogue between the warring parties to the Syrian conflict  amidst uncertain calm, Erdogan has effectively opened a new front in the war by launching Operation Olive Branch.

On 19th January, 2018, Turkish ground forces began a military operation in north-western Syria. This came as a direct response to the United States' announcement for a plan to set up a 'border security force' in a corridor ranging from Afrin to Manjib, and along Turkey's border with Syria. 

Now here's the tricky part- a large majority of these 'security personnel' are Kurdish fighters backed by the US, belonging to groups like the SDF and the YPG, groups deemed as terrorist organizations by the Turkish state, based on these groups' affiliations with Turkey's own domestically outlawed Kurdish group, the PKK.

As had been mentioned before in the article 'Approaching war clouds', Turkey's main agenda in the Syrian war is the prevention of the creation of an independent Kurdish state, and they have taken their war against the Kurds beyond their own borders. 

What is interesting here is the role of local fighters on the ground like the FSA, as well as the role Russia plays in this latest incursion into Syria.

Russo-Turkish cooperation

Earlier in 2016, Turkey was granted control of Northern Aleppo and al-Bab by Russia, in exchange for the Assad regime's reacquisition of the strategic are of Eastern Aleppo. Such discreet agreements can only mean that Russia is now equivalent to being representative of the Syrian regime. In another sign of warming relations between Turkey and Russia, it is clear that this operation would not have commenced without the consent and permission from the Kremlin. Russia still controls the air space of the Afrin region, which is the first military target for the Turks. This means that Turkish air power will not be allowed in the region without the active consent of Russia. Before the Turkish Army bombed Menagh air base, Russian service men stationed there moved 2 km away from the base, allowing the Turks to bombard it.

Whether this is an actual positive turn towards warmer ties between the two nations, or merely a pragmatic move to blind-eye the United States in Syria, only time will tell.

The operation would have been impossible without the consent of Russia who has active military presence in the region

Role of Free Syrian Army

The Free Syrian Army, or the FSA, was initially a splinter group of the Syrian Arab Army that defected and turned against the regime. In the early stages of the conflict they were regarded as the main opposition, apparently fighting for and representing the people of Syria against the Assad regime. The United States and several Western nations openly backed them, referring to them as a 'moderate opposition', in contrast to the more radical elements in the war like Daesh and other smaller factions. Al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front eventually became a major component of the FSA. When there was international outcry and pressure on the so called 'moderate opposition' for having links to al-Qaeda, both the groups seeked to distance themselves from the label and al Nusra even went on to change its name to Jabhat al-Sham. However, it is no secret that the FSA has enjoyed the most international aid and support, more than any other factions in the conflict, with resources and backing coming from the Saudis, Turkey as well as the West. After Trump took over the, backing has surely died down, instead making room for Turkey to use the FSA for its own ambitious gains. Today, the Turkish army and the FSA are fighting side by side against the Kurds, and the FSA  have abandoned their own agenda in favour of their primary backer's, the Turks.

The FSA has finally completed its change from a regular fighting unit with the aim of toppling Assad, into a mere band of mercenaries.

The FSA and the Turkish Army are fighting side by side against the Kurds

 Serious straining of US-Turkey relations

The relations between the two nations have been on a downward spiral ever since the failed coup in Turkey when the apparent breakaway troops took over the Incirlik air base which houses American nukes. This thaw in relations further worsened when it became clear that Turkey's agenda in Syria is not in line with the rest of its NATO members. Even though the Americans were informed of the operation beforehand, the events that started on 19th January haven't gone down well with Washington, with an American official saying that Turkey's operation would make the fight against ISIS more difficult. But the obvious reason for this dissatisfaction stems from the fact that Washington considers the Kurds to be the most trustworthy and useful ground forces in the Syrian conflict. Even though Trump has decided to turn a blind eye to the domestic crackdown on Kurds in Turkey and the next to dictatorial consolidation of power, Operation Olive Branch is going to evoke a foreign policy reaction from the United States.

Further complications in a pre-existing quagmire

The new military endeavor by Erdogan certainly does no one good, especially the people of Syria. In a nation where 5 million of its citizens have become refugees outside and more than 6 million are internally displaced, opening a new front to the war might spell the death knell for the future of Syria as a nation.
The embattled Syrian regime, though having made serious reversals in the past 30 months, has been surviving on aid from the Russians, whose economy isn't in a healthy shape either. 

How long will Putin continue to fight Assad's war, and what does Russia have to gain from Operation Olive Branch apart from creating distance in Turkey and America's broken relationshiop?

The Turkish ground invasion is a sure shot sign of how aggressive Erdogan is prepared to be to take his domestic war against the Kurds to the next level.